Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 14

Fortuna Sittard–Heracles

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 November 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Fortuna SittardK. Peterson (assist: M. Ihattaren)
58'HeraclesJ. Hornkamp (assist: W. Ould-Chikh)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fortuna Sittard		Heracles
23	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	3
15	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
11	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
333	Passes	254
257	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fortuna Sittard 1.83 · Heracles 1.27. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Fortuna Sittard 23 · Heracles 6; on target 5 and 3.
Fortuna Sittard kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Robin Hensgens, Netherlands→

4.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.5%: “Fortuna Sittard to win”. Second comes “Heracles to win” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for Fortuna Sittard, 1.25 for Heracles.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,037 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fortuna Sittard to win48.5%

Draw25.4%

Heracles to win26.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	22

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Fortuna Sittard lead at half-time36.1%

Level at half-time39.7%

Heracles lead at half-time24.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Fortuna Sittard ahead or level75.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or Heracles ahead63.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1037 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fortuna Sittard: at least 10Actual: 19
Heracles: at least 11Actual: 22

Corners

Fortuna Sittard: at least 4Actual: 11
Heracles: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fortuna Sittard score1.83

Attack: Fortuna Sittard score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Heracles concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Heracles score1.27

Attack: Heracles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Sittard's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%2–110.5%1–07.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.