Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 14

Excelsior–NAC Breda

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 November 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 39%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'ExcelsiorN. Naujoks (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Excelsior		NAC Breda
6	Shots	22
2	Shots on target	3
3	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
350	Passes	452
264	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Excelsior 1.68 · NAC Breda 1.37. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Excelsior 6 · NAC Breda 22; on target 2 and 3.
NAC Breda kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands→

4.50

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.2%: “Excelsior to win”. Second comes “NAC Breda to win” at 34.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Excelsior, 1.44 for NAC Breda.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,036 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Excelsior to win39.2%

Draw26.3%

NAC Breda to win34.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

22	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Excelsior lead at half-time39.4%

Level at half-time41.1%

NAC Breda lead at half-time19.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Excelsior ahead or level80.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or NAC Breda ahead60.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1036 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Excelsior: at least 11Actual: 22
NAC Breda: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Excelsior: at least 4Actual: 1
NAC Breda: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Excelsior score1.68

Attack: Excelsior score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: NAC Breda's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals NAC Breda score1.37

Attack: NAC Breda score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Excelsior concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%2–19.5%1–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.