Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 13

Telstar–Utrecht

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 November 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

56'TelstarS. Hetli (assist: G. Offerhaus)
90'UtrechtC. Bozdogan (assist: A. Engwanda)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Telstar		Utrecht
10	Shots	17
3	Shots on target	3
2	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	8
3	Offsides	0
42%	Possession	58%
368	Passes	493
292	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Telstar 1.57 · Utrecht 1.66. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Telstar 10 · Utrecht 17; on target 3 and 3.
Utrecht kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Robin Hensgens, Netherlands→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.2%: “Utrecht to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.18 for Telstar, 1.66 for Utrecht.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (X2 — draw or Utrecht win).
These values were computed from 1,032 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Telstar to win25.7%

Draw26.1%

Utrecht to win48.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Telstar lead at half-time33.2%

Level at half-time39.2%

Utrecht lead at half-time27.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Telstar ahead or level72.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.8%

X2 — level or Utrecht ahead66.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1032 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Telstar: at least 10Actual: 10
Utrecht: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Telstar: at least 5Actual: 1
Utrecht: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Telstar score1.57

Attack: Telstar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Utrecht's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Utrecht score1.66

Attack: Utrecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Telstar concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%1–210.5%0–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.