Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 13

Sparta Rotterdam–Fortuna Sittard

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'Sparta RotterdamJ. Kitolano (assist: M. van Bergen)
56'Fortuna SittardK. Sierhuis

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sparta Rotterdam		Fortuna Sittard
13	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	7
10	Shots inside the box	7
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	5
0	Offsides	3
61%	Possession	39%
542	Passes	354
448	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sparta Rotterdam 1.62 · Fortuna Sittard 1.20. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Sparta Rotterdam 13 · Fortuna Sittard 12; on target 4 and 7.
Sparta Rotterdam kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Erwin Blank, Netherlands→

1.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.6%: “Sparta Rotterdam to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Sparta Rotterdam, 1.08 for Fortuna Sittard.
The highest double chance value is 76.7% (1X — Sparta Rotterdam win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,029 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sparta Rotterdam to win50.6%

Draw26.1%

Fortuna Sittard to win23.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sparta Rotterdam lead at half-time37.5%

Level at half-time43.3%

Fortuna Sittard lead at half-time19.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Sparta Rotterdam ahead or level80.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Fortuna Sittard ahead62.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1029 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sparta Rotterdam: at least 8Actual: 9
Fortuna Sittard: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Sparta Rotterdam: at least 5Actual: 7
Fortuna Sittard: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sparta Rotterdam score1.62

Attack: Sparta Rotterdam score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Sittard's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fortuna Sittard score1.20

Attack: Fortuna Sittard score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sparta Rotterdam's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–110.6%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.