Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 13

Heracles–GO Ahead Eagles

4–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'HeraclesDamon Mirani (assist: Luka Kulenović)
34'GO Ahead EaglesM. Suray
38'GO Ahead EaglesM. Smit (assist: M. Deijl)
51'HeraclesDamon Mirani (assist: W. Ould-Chikh)
54'HeraclesJizz Hornkamp (assist: Luka Kulenović)
69'GO Ahead EaglesD. James

Match statistics

Match statistics
Heracles		GO Ahead Eagles
22	Shots	6
12	Shots on target	4
16	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	8
6	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
376	Passes	439
298	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Heracles 1.53 · GO Ahead Eagles 1.76. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots Heracles 22 · GO Ahead Eagles 6; on target 12 and 4.

Referee

Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands→

3.25

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.6%: “Heracles to win”. Second comes “GO Ahead Eagles to win” at 36.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Heracles, 1.50 for GO Ahead Eagles.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,029 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Heracles to win37.6%

Draw26.2%

GO Ahead Eagles to win36.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–2

Heracles lead at half-time29.5%

Level at half-time38.5%

GO Ahead Eagles lead at half-time32.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Heracles ahead or level68.0%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or GO Ahead Eagles ahead70.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1029 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Heracles: at least 10Actual: 6
GO Ahead Eagles: at least 9Actual: 15

Corners

Heracles: at least 5Actual: 6
GO Ahead Eagles: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Heracles score1.53

Attack: Heracles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GO Ahead Eagles's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals GO Ahead Eagles score1.76

Attack: GO Ahead Eagles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Heracles concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–19.3%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.