Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 12

GO Ahead Eagles–Feyenoord

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: De Adelaarshorst, Deventer

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 14%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'GO Ahead EaglesM. Deijl (penalty)
86'GO Ahead EaglesD. James (assist: M. Suray)
89'FeyenoordT. Watanabe

Match statistics

Match statistics
GO Ahead Eagles		Feyenoord
9	Shots	21
5	Shots on target	6
4	Shots inside the box	16
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	7
1	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
356	Passes	536
272	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GO Ahead Eagles 1.16 · Feyenoord 2.00. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots GO Ahead Eagles 9 · Feyenoord 21; on target 5 and 6.
Feyenoord kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Joey Kooij, Netherlands→

5.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.0%: “Feyenoord to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.06 for GO Ahead Eagles, 2.37 for Feyenoord.
The highest double chance value is 86.1% (X2 — draw or Feyenoord win).
These values were computed from 1,025 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GO Ahead Eagles to win13.9%

Draw19.2%

Feyenoord to win67.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

GO Ahead Eagles lead at half-time16.4%

Level at half-time37.0%

Feyenoord lead at half-time46.5%

First-half double chance

1X — GO Ahead Eagles ahead or level53.5%

12 — not level at half-time63.0%

X2 — level or Feyenoord ahead83.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1025 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 9Actual: 7
Feyenoord: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 4Actual: 4
Feyenoord: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GO Ahead Eagles score1.16

Attack: GO Ahead Eagles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Feyenoord concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Feyenoord score2.00

Attack: Feyenoord score above the league average (45% more).

Opponent's defence: GO Ahead Eagles's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.6%0–29.2%1–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.