Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 12

Utrecht–Ajax

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 11:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'UtrechtM. Didden (assist: Souffian El Karouani)
54'UtrechtS. Haller (assist: Souffian El Karouani)
56'AjaxM. Godts (assist: Y. Regeer)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Utrecht		Ajax
16	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
32%	Possession	68%
287	Passes	636
221	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Utrecht 1.52 · Ajax 1.58. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Utrecht 16 · Ajax 10; on target 6 and 4.
Ajax kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Danny Makkelie, Netherlands→

3.83

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.2%: “Ajax to win”. Second comes “Utrecht to win” at 34.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for Utrecht, 1.53 for Ajax.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,022 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Utrecht to win34.3%

Draw26.5%

Ajax to win39.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Utrecht lead at half-time29.9%

Level at half-time40.6%

Ajax lead at half-time29.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Utrecht ahead or level70.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Ajax ahead70.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1022 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Utrecht: at least 10Actual: 15
Ajax: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Utrecht: at least 4Actual: 6
Ajax: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Utrecht score1.52

Attack: Utrecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ajax concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ajax score1.58

Attack: Ajax score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Utrecht's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–29.5%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.