Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 12

Fortuna Sittard–Heerenveen

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 November 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

60'Fortuna SittardP. Gladon
66'Fortuna SittardM. Ihattaren (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fortuna Sittard		Heerenveen
10	Shots	18
5	Shots on target	8
5	Shots inside the box	9
8	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	5
3	Offsides	3
39%	Possession	61%
290	Passes	443
208	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fortuna Sittard 1.43 · Heerenveen 1.49. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Fortuna Sittard 10 · Heerenveen 18; on target 5 and 8.
Heerenveen kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands→

3.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.0%: “Heerenveen to win”. Second comes “Fortuna Sittard to win” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Fortuna Sittard, 1.58 for Heerenveen.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,020 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fortuna Sittard to win31.6%

Draw26.5%

Heerenveen to win42.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Fortuna Sittard lead at half-time28.5%

Level at half-time41.4%

Heerenveen lead at half-time30.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Fortuna Sittard ahead or level69.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Heerenveen ahead71.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1020 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fortuna Sittard: at least 10Actual: 14
Heerenveen: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Fortuna Sittard: at least 4Actual: 4
Heerenveen: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fortuna Sittard score1.43

Attack: Fortuna Sittard score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Heerenveen's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Heerenveen score1.49

Attack: Heerenveen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Sittard's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%1–29.9%2–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.