Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 12

FC Volendam–NAC Breda

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 November 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kras Stadion, Volendam

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'NAC BredaN. Verschuren (own goal)
53'NAC BredaL. Holtby · red card
58'FC VolendamH. Veerman (assist: G. Yah)
78'FC VolendamR. Muhren (assist: Yannick Leliendal)
90'NAC BredaF. Jensen · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Volendam		NAC Breda
12	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
392	Passes	383
324	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Volendam 1.51 · NAC Breda 1.51. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots FC Volendam 12 · NAC Breda 12; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

Richard Martens, Netherlands→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.3%: “NAC Breda to win”. Second comes “FC Volendam to win” at 34.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for FC Volendam, 1.54 for NAC Breda.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,019 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Volendam to win34.3%

Draw26.4%

NAC Breda to win39.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	2

First half

Actual: 0–1

FC Volendam lead at half-time31.7%

Level at half-time41.0%

NAC Breda lead at half-time27.4%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Volendam ahead or level72.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or NAC Breda ahead68.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1019 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Volendam: at least 9Actual: 13
NAC Breda: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

FC Volendam: at least 4Actual: 8
NAC Breda: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Volendam score1.51

Attack: FC Volendam score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: NAC Breda's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals NAC Breda score1.51

Attack: NAC Breda score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Volendam concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–29.5%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.