Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 11

Telstar–Excelsior

2–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'TelstarJ. Ritmeester van de Kamp (assist: P. Brouwer)
28'TelstarT. Owusu (assist: P. Brouwer)
44'ExcelsiorA. Zagré (penalty)
77'ExcelsiorG. de Regt (assist: D. Sanches Fernandes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Telstar		Excelsior
17	Shots	21
8	Shots on target	8
12	Shots inside the box	16
6	Goalkeeper saves	6
3	Corners	5
3	Offsides	0
46%	Possession	54%
343	Passes	404
256	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Telstar 2.02 · Excelsior 1.25. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Telstar 17 · Excelsior 21; on target 8 and 8.

Referee

Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands→

1.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.1%: “Telstar to win”. Second comes “Excelsior to win” at 28.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for Telstar, 1.29 for Excelsior.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,012 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Telstar to win45.1%

Draw26.1%

Excelsior to win28.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Telstar lead at half-time36.4%

Level at half-time39.6%

Excelsior lead at half-time23.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Telstar ahead or level76.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.4%

X2 — level or Excelsior ahead63.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1012 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Telstar: at least 9Actual: 8
Excelsior: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Telstar: at least 5Actual: 3
Excelsior: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Telstar score2.02

Attack: Telstar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Excelsior concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Excelsior score1.25

Attack: Excelsior score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Telstar concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–110.2%1–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.