Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 11

NAC Breda–GO Ahead Eagles

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 November 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

48'NAC BredaJ. Talvitie (assist: Maximilien Balard)

Match statistics

Match statistics
NAC Breda		GO Ahead Eagles
8	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
44%	Possession	56%
385	Passes	505
311	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NAC Breda 1.57 · GO Ahead Eagles 1.67. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots NAC Breda 8 · GO Ahead Eagles 7; on target 2 and 2.
GO Ahead Eagles kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Dennis Higler, Netherlands→

1.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.2%: “NAC Breda to win”. Second comes “GO Ahead Eagles to win” at 30.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for NAC Breda, 1.37 for GO Ahead Eagles.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,010 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NAC Breda to win43.2%

Draw26.0%

GO Ahead Eagles to win30.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	8

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

NAC Breda lead at half-time31.5%

Level at half-time40.6%

GO Ahead Eagles lead at half-time28.0%

First-half double chance

1X — NAC Breda ahead or level72.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or GO Ahead Eagles ahead68.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1010 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NAC Breda: at least 9Actual: 10
GO Ahead Eagles: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

NAC Breda: at least 5Actual: 2
GO Ahead Eagles: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NAC Breda score1.57

Attack: NAC Breda score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GO Ahead Eagles's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals GO Ahead Eagles score1.67

Attack: GO Ahead Eagles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: NAC Breda's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.0%1–28.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.