Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 10

GO Ahead Eagles–Excelsior

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 October 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: De Adelaarshorst, Deventer

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

58'GO Ahead EaglesM. Suray
66'GO Ahead EaglesM. Suray (assist: J. Kramer)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GO Ahead Eagles		Excelsior
12	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	10
1	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
462	Passes	430
372	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GO Ahead Eagles 2.17 · Excelsior 1.17. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots GO Ahead Eagles 12 · Excelsior 11; on target 4 and 2.

Referee

Jannick van der Laan, Netherlands→

4.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.9%: “GO Ahead Eagles to win”. Second comes “Excelsior to win” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.75 for GO Ahead Eagles, 1.37 for Excelsior.
The highest double chance value is 74.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,007 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GO Ahead Eagles to win45.9%

Draw25.2%

Excelsior to win28.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

GO Ahead Eagles lead at half-time39.1%

Level at half-time38.7%

Excelsior lead at half-time22.2%

First-half double chance

1X — GO Ahead Eagles ahead or level77.8%

12 — not level at half-time61.3%

X2 — level or Excelsior ahead60.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1007 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 8Actual: 7
Excelsior: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 5Actual: 4
Excelsior: at least 3Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GO Ahead Eagles score2.17

Attack: GO Ahead Eagles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Excelsior concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Excelsior score1.17

Attack: Excelsior score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: GO Ahead Eagles's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–110.2%1–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.