Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 10

FC Volendam–Heracles

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kras Stadion, Volendam

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'FC VolendamN. Bukala (assist: Mawouna Amevor)
49'FC VolendamYannick Leliendal (assist: N. Verschuren)
58'HeraclesM. Engels · red card
66'FC VolendamA. Oehlers (assist: N. Bukala)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Volendam		Heracles
13	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	5
1	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
466	Passes	357
404	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Volendam 1.63 · Heracles 1.40. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots FC Volendam 13 · Heracles 11; on target 7 and 2.
FC Volendam kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Danny Makkelie, Netherlands→

4.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.6%: “FC Volendam to win”. Second comes “Heracles to win” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.69 for FC Volendam, 1.27 for Heracles.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,002 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Volendam to win46.6%

Draw25.8%

Heracles to win27.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Volendam lead at half-time35.0%

Level at half-time38.0%

Heracles lead at half-time27.0%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Volendam ahead or level73.0%

12 — not level at half-time62.0%

X2 — level or Heracles ahead65.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1002 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Volendam: at least 9Actual: 6
Heracles: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

FC Volendam: at least 4Actual: 5
Heracles: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Volendam score1.63

Attack: FC Volendam score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Heracles concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Heracles score1.40

Attack: Heracles score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Volendam concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.3%1–07.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.