Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 10

Heerenveen–NAC Breda

3–3

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 24 October 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'HeerenveenTerence Kongolo (own goal)
55'NAC BredaL. Greiml (assist: L. Holtby)
58'NAC BredaS. van Hooijdonk (assist: K. Sowah)
68'HeerenveenM. Willemsen (assist: O. Braude)
80'HeerenveenV. Sejk (assist: O. Braude)
90'NAC BredaMohamed Nassoh

Match statistics

Match statistics
Heerenveen		NAC Breda
10	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	5
2	Offsides	2
54%	Possession	46%
441	Passes	366
361	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Heerenveen 2.04 · NAC Breda 1.14. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots Heerenveen 10 · NAC Breda 11; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.4%: “Heerenveen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.09 for Heerenveen, 1.06 for NAC Breda.
The highest double chance value is 83.2% (1X — Heerenveen win or draw).
These values were computed from 999 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Heerenveen to win61.4%

Draw21.8%

NAC Breda to win16.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Heerenveen lead at half-time39.7%

Level at half-time39.5%

NAC Breda lead at half-time20.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Heerenveen ahead or level79.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.5%

X2 — level or NAC Breda ahead60.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 999 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Heerenveen: at least 10Actual: 10
NAC Breda: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Heerenveen: at least 5Actual: 4
NAC Breda: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Heerenveen score2.04

Attack: Heerenveen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: NAC Breda's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.04 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals NAC Breda score1.14

Attack: NAC Breda score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Heerenveen's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–110.6%2–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.