Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 9

Excelsior–Fortuna Sittard

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 October 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'ExcelsiorG. de Regt (assist: I. Yegoian)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Excelsior		Fortuna Sittard
11	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	6
6	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	2
1	Offsides	5
50%	Possession	50%
409	Passes	407
311	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Excelsior 1.54 · Fortuna Sittard 1.43. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Excelsior 11 · Fortuna Sittard 14; on target 5 and 6.

Referee

Alex Bos, Netherlands→

3.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.0%: “Excelsior to win”. Second comes “Fortuna Sittard to win” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Excelsior, 1.21 for Fortuna Sittard.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 996 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Excelsior to win46.0%

Draw26.6%

Fortuna Sittard to win27.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	18

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Excelsior lead at half-time32.1%

Level at half-time42.1%

Fortuna Sittard lead at half-time25.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Excelsior ahead or level74.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Fortuna Sittard ahead67.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 996 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Excelsior: at least 11Actual: 10
Fortuna Sittard: at least 9Actual: 18

Corners

Excelsior: at least 4Actual: 4
Fortuna Sittard: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Excelsior score1.54

Attack: Excelsior score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Sittard's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fortuna Sittard score1.43

Attack: Fortuna Sittard score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Excelsior concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–110.3%1–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.