Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 9

Ajax–AZ Alkmaar

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 October 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'AZ AlkmaarWeslley Patati
42'AZ AlkmaarT. Parrott (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ajax		AZ Alkmaar
17	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	4
3	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
549	Passes	349
480	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ajax 1.80 · AZ Alkmaar 1.27. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Ajax 17 · AZ Alkmaar 13; on target 6 and 3.
Ajax kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands→

2.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.5%: “Ajax to win”. Second comes “AZ Alkmaar to win” at 28.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.77 for Ajax, 1.37 for AZ Alkmaar.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 993 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ajax to win46.5%

Draw25.1%

AZ Alkmaar to win28.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	19

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Ajax lead at half-time40.4%

Level at half-time39.0%

AZ Alkmaar lead at half-time20.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Ajax ahead or level79.4%

12 — not level at half-time61.0%

X2 — level or AZ Alkmaar ahead59.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 993 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ajax: at least 9Actual: 13
AZ Alkmaar: at least 11Actual: 19

Corners

Ajax: at least 4Actual: 5
AZ Alkmaar: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ajax score1.80

Attack: Ajax score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.80 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score1.27

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Ajax concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–110.2%1–27.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.