Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 9

NEC Nijmegen–Twente

3–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 October 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Goffertstadion, Nijmegen

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'TwenteR. van Wolfswinkel (penalty)
29'NEC NijmegenT. Ouwejan (assist: K. Sano)
55'TwenteM. Rots (assist: S. Ørjasæter)
66'NEC NijmegenY. El Kachati (assist: T. Ouwejan)
83'NEC NijmegenA. Verschueren (own goal)
90'TwenteR. van Wolfswinkel

Match statistics

Match statistics
NEC Nijmegen		Twente
8	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	3
3	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
409	Passes	272
339	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NEC Nijmegen 1.70 · Twente 1.46. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots NEC Nijmegen 8 · Twente 10; on target 4 and 3.
NEC Nijmegen kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Marc Nagtegaal, Netherlands→

3.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.2%: “NEC Nijmegen to win”. Second comes “Twente to win” at 37.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for NEC Nijmegen, 1.58 for Twente.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 990 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NEC Nijmegen to win37.2%

Draw25.5%

Twente to win37.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	21

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

NEC Nijmegen lead at half-time30.9%

Level at half-time40.2%

Twente lead at half-time28.9%

First-half double chance

1X — NEC Nijmegen ahead or level71.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Twente ahead69.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 990 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NEC Nijmegen: at least 10Actual: 15
Twente: at least 11Actual: 21

Corners

NEC Nijmegen: at least 4Actual: 3
Twente: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NEC Nijmegen score1.70

Attack: NEC Nijmegen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Twente's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Twente score1.46

Attack: Twente score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: NEC Nijmegen's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%1–29.1%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.