Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 8

GO Ahead Eagles–NEC Nijmegen

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 October 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: De Adelaarshorst, Deventer

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'NEC NijmegenJari De Busser (own goal)
85'NEC NijmegenP. Sandler · red card
90'GO Ahead EaglesG. Nauber (assist: J. Breum)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GO Ahead Eagles		NEC Nijmegen
8	Shots	17
3	Shots on target	7
5	Shots inside the box	10
7	Goalkeeper saves	1
11	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
372	Passes	347
296	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GO Ahead Eagles 1.79 · NEC Nijmegen 1.59. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots GO Ahead Eagles 8 · NEC Nijmegen 17; on target 3 and 7.

Referee

Martijn Vos, Netherlands→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.3%: “NEC Nijmegen to win”. Second comes “GO Ahead Eagles to win” at 37.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for GO Ahead Eagles, 1.77 for NEC Nijmegen.
The highest double chance value is 76.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 989 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GO Ahead Eagles to win37.7%

Draw24.0%

NEC Nijmegen to win38.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

GO Ahead Eagles lead at half-time44.1%

Level at half-time37.3%

NEC Nijmegen lead at half-time18.6%

First-half double chance

1X — GO Ahead Eagles ahead or level81.4%

12 — not level at half-time62.7%

X2 — level or NEC Nijmegen ahead55.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 989 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 9Actual: 13
NEC Nijmegen: at least 10Actual: 18

Corners

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 5Actual: 11
NEC Nijmegen: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GO Ahead Eagles score1.79

Attack: GO Ahead Eagles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: NEC Nijmegen's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals NEC Nijmegen score1.59

Attack: NEC Nijmegen score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: GO Ahead Eagles's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.2%1–28.8%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.