Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 8

Feyenoord–Utrecht

3–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 October 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'FeyenoordA. Ueda (assist: O. Targhalline)
47'UtrechtG. Zechiël (assist: S. Haller)
50'FeyenoordS. Steijn
83'UtrechtD. Murkin (assist: M. Jonathans)
88'FeyenoordA. Ueda (assist: C. Larin)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Feyenoord		Utrecht
22	Shots	10
10	Shots on target	4
17	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
12	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
453	Passes	382
391	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Feyenoord 2.11 · Utrecht 0.95. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Feyenoord 22 · Utrecht 10; on target 10 and 4.
Feyenoord kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands→

3.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.1%: “Feyenoord to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.16 for Feyenoord, 0.92 for Utrecht.
The highest double chance value is 86.5% (1X — Feyenoord win or draw).
These values were computed from 987 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Feyenoord to win66.1%

Draw20.5%

Utrecht to win13.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Feyenoord lead at half-time50.8%

Level at half-time35.7%

Utrecht lead at half-time13.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Feyenoord ahead or level86.5%

12 — not level at half-time64.3%

X2 — level or Utrecht ahead49.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 987 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Feyenoord: at least 9Actual: 7
Utrecht: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Feyenoord: at least 5Actual: 12
Utrecht: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Feyenoord score2.11

Attack: Feyenoord score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Utrecht's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Utrecht score0.95

Attack: Utrecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Feyenoord concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.9%2–110.9%1–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.