Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 8

NAC Breda–Groningen

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 3 October 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 35%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'GroningenT. de Jonge
54'GroningenT. van Bergen (assist: E. Vaessen)
90'NAC BredaMohamed Nassoh (assist: C. Brym)

Match statistics

Match statistics
NAC Breda		Groningen
11	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	9
8	Shots inside the box	5
7	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	6
3	Offsides	3
61%	Possession	39%
523	Passes	339
422	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NAC Breda 1.45 · Groningen 1.43. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots NAC Breda 11 · Groningen 14; on target 4 and 9.
NAC Breda kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Jannick van der Laan, Netherlands→

3.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.9%: “NAC Breda to win”. Second comes “Groningen to win” at 35.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for NAC Breda, 1.28 for Groningen.
The highest double chance value is 71.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 981 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NAC Breda to win35.9%

Draw28.6%

Groningen to win35.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

NAC Breda lead at half-time30.2%

Level at half-time41.1%

Groningen lead at half-time28.7%

First-half double chance

1X — NAC Breda ahead or level71.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Groningen ahead69.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 981 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NAC Breda: at least 9Actual: 16
Groningen: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

NAC Breda: at least 4Actual: 7
Groningen: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NAC Breda score1.45

Attack: NAC Breda score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Groningen's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Groningen score1.43

Attack: Groningen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: NAC Breda's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–08.9%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.