Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 7

NEC Nijmegen–AZ Alkmaar

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 September 2025 at 10:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Goffertstadion, Nijmegen

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'NEC NijmegenB. Önal (assist: B. Linssen)
60'AZ AlkmaarI. Sadiq
79'NEC NijmegenD. Proper (assist: B. Linssen)
85'AZ AlkmaarJ. Clasie · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
NEC Nijmegen		AZ Alkmaar
14	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	4
3	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
327	Passes	423
239	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NEC Nijmegen 1.57 · AZ Alkmaar 1.55. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots NEC Nijmegen 14 · AZ Alkmaar 7; on target 4 and 2.
AZ Alkmaar kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Sander van der Eijk, Netherlands→

3.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.8%: “AZ Alkmaar to win”. Second comes “NEC Nijmegen to win” at 28.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for NEC Nijmegen, 1.94 for AZ Alkmaar.
The highest double chance value is 76.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 977 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NEC Nijmegen to win28.5%

Draw23.7%

AZ Alkmaar to win47.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

NEC Nijmegen lead at half-time22.2%

Level at half-time39.5%

AZ Alkmaar lead at half-time38.3%

First-half double chance

1X — NEC Nijmegen ahead or level61.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.5%

X2 — level or AZ Alkmaar ahead77.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 977 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NEC Nijmegen: at least 9Actual: 14
AZ Alkmaar: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

NEC Nijmegen: at least 4Actual: 5
AZ Alkmaar: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NEC Nijmegen score1.57

Attack: NEC Nijmegen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score1.55

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: NEC Nijmegen's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.5%1–210.0%2–27.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.