Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 7

FC Volendam–PEC Zwolle

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 September 2025 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kras Stadion, Volendam

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 39%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'FC VolendamH. Veerman (assist: Joel Ideho)
45'PEC ZwolleK. de Rooij (assist: K. Kostons)
56'FC VolendamB. Kuwas (assist: R. van Cruijsen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Volendam		PEC Zwolle
15	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	5
2	Offsides	2
37%	Possession	63%
278	Passes	499
205	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Volendam 1.41 · PEC Zwolle 1.49. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots FC Volendam 15 · PEC Zwolle 14; on target 3 and 2.
PEC Zwolle kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Robin Hensgens, Netherlands→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.6%: “FC Volendam to win”. Second comes “PEC Zwolle to win” at 34.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for FC Volendam, 1.44 for PEC Zwolle.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 974 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Volendam to win38.6%

Draw26.5%

PEC Zwolle to win34.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

FC Volendam lead at half-time24.2%

Level at half-time40.1%

PEC Zwolle lead at half-time35.7%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Volendam ahead or level64.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or PEC Zwolle ahead75.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 974 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Volendam: at least 9Actual: 11
PEC Zwolle: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

FC Volendam: at least 4Actual: 3
PEC Zwolle: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Volendam score1.41

Attack: FC Volendam score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: PEC Zwolle's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PEC Zwolle score1.49

Attack: PEC Zwolle score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Volendam concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–19.4%1–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.