Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 6

NAC Breda–Heracles

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 September 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'HeraclesY. Borges Sanches
57'NAC BredaB. Kemper
85'NAC BredaS. van Hooijdonk (assist: B. Kemper)

Match statistics

Match statistics
NAC Breda		Heracles
17	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	5
15	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
10	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
505	Passes	304
431	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NAC Breda 1.80 · Heracles 1.26. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots NAC Breda 17 · Heracles 14; on target 4 and 5.
NAC Breda kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

D. Higler→

3.06

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.0%: “NAC Breda to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.71 for NAC Breda, 1.12 for Heracles.
The highest double chance value is 76.6% (1X — NAC Breda win or draw).
These values were computed from 966 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NAC Breda to win51.0%

Draw25.7%

Heracles to win23.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

NAC Breda lead at half-time42.5%

Level at half-time39.6%

Heracles lead at half-time17.8%

First-half double chance

1X — NAC Breda ahead or level82.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.4%

X2 — level or Heracles ahead57.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 966 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NAC Breda: at least 9Actual: 9
Heracles: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

NAC Breda: at least 4Actual: 10
Heracles: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NAC Breda score1.80

Attack: NAC Breda score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Heracles concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.80 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Heracles score1.26

Attack: Heracles score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: NAC Breda's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–110.7%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.