Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 6

Fortuna Sittard–Utrecht

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 September 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'Fortuna SittardM. Ihattaren

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fortuna Sittard		Utrecht
7	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	11
3	Offsides	2
36%	Possession	64%
343	Passes	602
266	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fortuna Sittard 1.33 · Utrecht 1.50. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Fortuna Sittard 7 · Utrecht 14; on target 3 and 5.
Utrecht kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

B. Nijhuis→

2.29

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.1%: “Utrecht to win”. Second comes “Fortuna Sittard to win” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Fortuna Sittard, 1.55 for Utrecht.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 965 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fortuna Sittard to win28.9%

Draw27.0%

Utrecht to win44.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	7

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Fortuna Sittard lead at half-time24.8%

Level at half-time41.9%

Utrecht lead at half-time33.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Fortuna Sittard ahead or level66.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Utrecht ahead75.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 965 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fortuna Sittard: at least 11Actual: 12
Utrecht: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Fortuna Sittard: at least 4Actual: 1
Utrecht: at least 4Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fortuna Sittard score1.33

Attack: Fortuna Sittard score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Utrecht's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Utrecht score1.50

Attack: Utrecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Sittard's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–210.1%0–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.