Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 6

Sparta Rotterdam–Twente

1–5

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 19 September 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'TwenteR. Zerrouki (assist: K. Hlynsson)
24'Sparta RotterdamT. Lauritsen
51'TwenteK. Hlynsson (assist: M. Pjaca)
60'TwenteB. van Rooij
65'TwenteR. van Wolfswinkel
85'TwenteN. Ünüvar (assist: A. Verschueren)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sparta Rotterdam		Twente
7	Shots	23
2	Shots on target	11
5	Shots inside the box	14
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	6
2	Offsides	0
45%	Possession	55%
374	Passes	460
305	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sparta Rotterdam 1.47 · Twente 1.47. On the pitch: 1-5.
Shots Sparta Rotterdam 7 · Twente 23; on target 2 and 11.
Twente kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

M. van den Kerkhof→

2.53

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.8%: “Twente to win”. Second comes “Sparta Rotterdam to win” at 34.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Sparta Rotterdam, 1.56 for Twente.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 962 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sparta Rotterdam to win34.0%

Draw26.2%

Twente to win39.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	6

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Sparta Rotterdam lead at half-time29.8%

Level at half-time42.4%

Twente lead at half-time27.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Sparta Rotterdam ahead or level72.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Twente ahead70.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 962 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sparta Rotterdam: at least 9Actual: 7
Twente: at least 9Actual: 6

Corners

Sparta Rotterdam: at least 3Actual: 1
Twente: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sparta Rotterdam score1.47

Attack: Sparta Rotterdam score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Twente's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Twente score1.47

Attack: Twente score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sparta Rotterdam's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%1–29.6%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.