Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 5

Feyenoord–Heerenveen

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 September 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'FeyenoordA. Hadj-Moussa (assist: G. Read)
57'FeyenoordA. Hadj-Moussa · red card
72'HeerenveenH. Petrov · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Feyenoord		Heerenveen
9	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	3
4	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
336	Passes	394
272	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Feyenoord 2.45 · Heerenveen 0.80. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Feyenoord 9 · Heerenveen 11; on target 5 and 1.

Referee

R. Hensgens→

3.16

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.4%: “Feyenoord to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.53 for Feyenoord, 0.95 for Heerenveen.
The highest double chance value is 89.4% (1X — Feyenoord win or draw).
These values were computed from 955 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Feyenoord to win72.4%

Draw17.0%

Heerenveen to win10.6%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Feyenoord win or draw89.4%

12 — any result other than a draw83.0%

X2 — draw or Heerenveen win27.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (17.0%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Feyenoord lead at half-time61.2%

Level at half-time30.8%

Heerenveen lead at half-time8.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Feyenoord ahead or level92.0%

12 — not level at half-time69.2%

X2 — level or Heerenveen ahead38.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 955 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Feyenoord: at least 8Actual: 10
Heerenveen: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Feyenoord: at least 5Actual: 6
Heerenveen: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals69.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 59.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Feyenoord score2.45

Attack: Feyenoord score above the league average (41% more).

Opponent's defence: Heerenveen's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Heerenveen score0.80

Attack: Heerenveen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Feyenoord concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.3%2–010.0%3–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 955 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 105 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.