Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 4

Fortuna Sittard–NEC Nijmegen

3–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 31 August 2025 at 10:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Fortuna SittardM. Ihattaren (assist: K. Peterson)
28'NEC NijmegenB. Linssen
35'Fortuna SittardM. Ihattaren (penalty)
67'NEC NijmegenS. Ouaissa (assist: V. Misidjan)
90'Fortuna SittardP. Gladon (assist: P. Brittijn)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fortuna Sittard		NEC Nijmegen
10	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	4
3	Offsides	1
38%	Possession	62%
280	Passes	445
174	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fortuna Sittard 1.39 · NEC Nijmegen 1.52. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Fortuna Sittard 10 · NEC Nijmegen 14; on target 5 and 5.
NEC Nijmegen kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

E. Blank→

3.41

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.7%: “NEC Nijmegen to win”. Second comes “Fortuna Sittard to win” at 31.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Fortuna Sittard, 1.64 for NEC Nijmegen.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 948 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fortuna Sittard to win31.4%

Draw25.9%

NEC Nijmegen to win42.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	8

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Fortuna Sittard lead at half-time30.1%

Level at half-time44.5%

NEC Nijmegen lead at half-time25.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Fortuna Sittard ahead or level74.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or NEC Nijmegen ahead69.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 948 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fortuna Sittard: at least 10Actual: 16
NEC Nijmegen: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Fortuna Sittard: at least 5Actual: 3
NEC Nijmegen: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fortuna Sittard score1.39

Attack: Fortuna Sittard score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: NEC Nijmegen's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals NEC Nijmegen score1.52

Attack: NEC Nijmegen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Sittard's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%1–29.9%2–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.