Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 1

Fortuna Sittard–GO Ahead Eagles

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 8 August 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'GO Ahead EaglesShawn Adewoye (own goal)
45'Fortuna SittardP. Brittijn
54'GO Ahead EaglesC. Twigt · red card
85'Fortuna SittardL. Tunjic (assist: M. Aiko)
90'GO Ahead EaglesG. Nauber (assist: D. James)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fortuna Sittard		GO Ahead Eagles
36	Shots	6
8	Shots on target	2
23	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
67%	Possession	33%
491	Passes	242
433	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fortuna Sittard 1.46 · GO Ahead Eagles 1.46. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Fortuna Sittard 36 · GO Ahead Eagles 6; on target 8 and 2.
Fortuna Sittard kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

R. Dieperink→

3.21

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.7%: “GO Ahead Eagles to win”. Second comes “Fortuna Sittard to win” at 34.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Fortuna Sittard, 1.48 for GO Ahead Eagles.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 918 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fortuna Sittard to win34.4%

Draw26.9%

GO Ahead Eagles to win38.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

Fortuna Sittard lead at half-time28.5%

Level at half-time43.4%

GO Ahead Eagles lead at half-time28.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Fortuna Sittard ahead or level72.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.6%

X2 — level or GO Ahead Eagles ahead71.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 918 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fortuna Sittard: at least 10Actual: 10
GO Ahead Eagles: at least 9Actual: 9

Corners

Fortuna Sittard: at least 4Actual: 8
GO Ahead Eagles: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fortuna Sittard score1.46

Attack: Fortuna Sittard score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: GO Ahead Eagles's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals GO Ahead Eagles score1.46

Attack: GO Ahead Eagles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Sittard's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–29.4%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.