Super League 1 · Greece · Relegation Group - 10

Atromitos–Panserraikos

6–0

HT 4–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 21 May 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

3'AtromitosS. Zuber (assist: T. Tsingaras)
19'AtromitosS. Zuber (assist: Peter Michorl)
22'AtromitosS. Zuber (assist: T. van Weert)
40'AtromitosS. Zuber (assist: S. Pnevmonidis)
78'AtromitosS. Tsiloulis (assist: T. Karamanis)
81'AtromitosS. Pnevmonidis (assist: S. Tsiloulis)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atromitos		Panserraikos
15	Shots	5
9	Shots on target	0
14	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	4
5	Offsides	3
59%	Possession	41%
612	Passes	409
556	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atromitos 1.67 · Panserraikos 0.67. On the pitch: 6-0.
Shots Atromitos 15 · Panserraikos 5; on target 9 and 0.
Atromitos kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

A. Evangelou→

4.57

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.7%: “Atromitos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for Atromitos, 0.67 for Panserraikos.
The highest double chance value is 86.7% (1X — Atromitos win or draw).
These values were computed from 812 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atromitos to win61.7%

Draw24.9%

Panserraikos to win13.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 4–0

Atromitos lead at half-time52.4%

Level at half-time38.8%

Panserraikos lead at half-time8.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Atromitos ahead or level91.3%

12 — not level at half-time61.2%

X2 — level or Panserraikos ahead47.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 811 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Atromitos: at least 13Actual: 15
Panserraikos: at least 14Actual: 10

Corners

Atromitos: at least 5Actual: 3
Panserraikos: at least 2Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atromitos score1.67

Attack: Atromitos score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Panserraikos concede 49% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Panserraikos score0.67

Attack: Panserraikos score below the league average (41% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Atromitos's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.5%2–013.8%1–112.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.