Super League 1 · Greece · Championship Group - 6

AEK Athens FC–Olympiakos Piraeus

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

41'Olympiakos PiraeusRodinei (assist: D. Podence)
72'AEK Athens FCA. Koita (assist: L. Rota)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEK Athens FC		Olympiakos Piraeus
11	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	3
55%	Possession	45%
369	Passes	290
270	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Athens FC 1.08 · Olympiakos Piraeus 1.07. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots AEK Athens FC 11 · Olympiakos Piraeus 13; on target 4 and 5.
AEK Athens FC kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

A. Colombo→

4.72

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 34.5%: “AEK Athens FC to win”. Second comes “Olympiakos Piraeus to win” at 33.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.08 for AEK Athens FC, 1.07 for Olympiakos Piraeus.
The highest double chance value is 68.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 810 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Athens FC to win34.5%

Draw31.6%

Olympiakos Piraeus to win33.9%

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 1,976 of 6,366 predictions were correct (31.0%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

AEK Athens FC lead at half-time25.5%

Level at half-time50.6%

Olympiakos Piraeus lead at half-time23.9%

First-half double chance

1X — AEK Athens FC ahead or level76.1%

12 — not level at half-time49.4%

X2 — level or Olympiakos Piraeus ahead74.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 809 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AEK Athens FC: at least 12Actual: 16
Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

AEK Athens FC: at least 3Actual: 4
Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Athens FC score1.08

Attack: AEK Athens FC score 56% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos Piraeus concede 55% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.08 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Olympiakos Piraeus score1.07

Attack: Olympiakos Piraeus score 59% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: AEK Athens FC concede 44% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.07 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%1–011.8%0–111.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.