Super League 1 · Greece · Relegation Group - 9

Asteras Tripolis–Kifisia

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

Match statistics

Match statistics
Asteras Tripolis		Kifisia
25	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	2
16	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
11	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
461	Passes	363
386	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Asteras Tripolis 1.14 · Kifisia 1.27. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Asteras Tripolis 25 · Kifisia 8; on target 5 and 2.
Asteras Tripolis kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

A. Tsakalidis→

5.08

yellows per match

0.03

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.7%: “Kifisia to win”. Second comes “Asteras Tripolis to win” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for Asteras Tripolis, 1.27 for Kifisia.
The highest double chance value is 70.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 810 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Asteras Tripolis to win31.7%

Draw29.6%

Kifisia to win38.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	19

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Asteras Tripolis win or draw61.3%

12 — any result other than a draw70.4%

X2 — draw or Kifisia win68.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Asteras Tripolis lead at half-time23.0%

Level at half-time42.7%

Kifisia lead at half-time34.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Asteras Tripolis ahead or level65.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Kifisia ahead77.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 809 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Asteras Tripolis: at least 13Actual: 6
Kifisia: at least 16Actual: 19

Corners

Asteras Tripolis: at least 5Actual: 11
Kifisia: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Asteras Tripolis score1.14

Attack: Asteras Tripolis score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kifisia concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kifisia score1.27

Attack: Kifisia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Asteras Tripolis concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%0–110.6%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.