Super League 1 · Greece · Championship Group - 5

Olympiakos Piraeus–Panathinaikos

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 13 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

45'Olympiakos PiraeusRodinei

Match statistics

Match statistics
Olympiakos Piraeus		Panathinaikos
15	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	0
13	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
365	Passes	321
268	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.74 · Panathinaikos 0.68. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Olympiakos Piraeus 15 · Panathinaikos 5; on target 5 and 0.

Referee

R. Obrenovic→

4.67

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.4%: “Olympiakos Piraeus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for Olympiakos Piraeus, 0.68 for Panathinaikos.
The highest double chance value is 87.4% (1X — Olympiakos Piraeus win or draw).
These values were computed from 808 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olympiakos Piraeus to win63.4%

Draw24.0%

Panathinaikos to win12.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Olympiakos Piraeus win or draw87.4%

12 — any result other than a draw76.0%

X2 — draw or Panathinaikos win36.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.0%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Olympiakos Piraeus lead at half-time34.4%

Level at half-time46.9%

Panathinaikos lead at half-time18.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Olympiakos Piraeus ahead or level81.3%

12 — not level at half-time53.1%

X2 — level or Panathinaikos ahead65.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 807 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 13Actual: 19
Panathinaikos: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 5
Panathinaikos: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olympiakos Piraeus score1.74

Attack: Olympiakos Piraeus score 60% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Panathinaikos concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.74 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Panathinaikos score0.68

Attack: Panathinaikos score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos Piraeus concede 54% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.0%2–014.0%1–111.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.