Super League 1 · Greece · Relegation Group - 8

Asteras Tripolis–Panserraikos

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 12 May 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

18'PanserraikosStephane Omeonga · red card
59'Asteras TripolisF. Macheda (assist: J. Bartolo)
90+9'Asteras TripolisMiki Muñoz · red card
90+9'PanserraikosIgor Kalinin · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Asteras Tripolis		Panserraikos
7	Shots	4
1	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
11	Corners	2
5	Offsides	0
72%	Possession	28%
467	Passes	181
400	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Asteras Tripolis 1.40 · Panserraikos 0.84. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Asteras Tripolis 7 · Panserraikos 4; on target 1 and 2.
Asteras Tripolis kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

A. Papapetrou→

4.02

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.8%: “Asteras Tripolis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for Asteras Tripolis, 0.84 for Panserraikos.
The highest double chance value is 78.9% (1X — Asteras Tripolis win or draw).
These values were computed from 808 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Asteras Tripolis to win49.8%

Draw29.1%

Panserraikos to win21.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	11

4	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	2

First half

Actual: 0–0

Asteras Tripolis lead at half-time35.5%

Level at half-time44.3%

Panserraikos lead at half-time20.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Asteras Tripolis ahead or level79.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or Panserraikos ahead64.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 807 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Asteras Tripolis: at least 12Actual: 18
Panserraikos: at least 14Actual: 11

Corners

Asteras Tripolis: at least 5Actual: 11
Panserraikos: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Asteras Tripolis score1.40

Attack: Asteras Tripolis score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Panserraikos concede 47% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Panserraikos score0.84

Attack: Panserraikos score below the league average (41% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Asteras Tripolis concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–014.3%2–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.