Super League 1 · Greece · Championship Group - 4

AEK Athens FC–Panathinaikos

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

62'PanathinaikosA. Tetteh
72'AEK Athens FCZini
90'AEK Athens FCJoão Mário

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEK Athens FC		Panathinaikos
17	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	1
2	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
443	Passes	287
361	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Athens FC 1.66 · Panathinaikos 0.81. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots AEK Athens FC 17 · Panathinaikos 10; on target 6 and 3.
AEK Athens FC kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

H. Osmers→

4.35

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.8%: “AEK Athens FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for AEK Athens FC, 0.81 for Panathinaikos.
The highest double chance value is 83.5% (1X — AEK Athens FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 806 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Athens FC to win57.8%

Draw25.6%

Panathinaikos to win16.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	16

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

AEK Athens FC lead at half-time34.7%

Level at half-time45.6%

Panathinaikos lead at half-time19.6%

First-half double chance

1X — AEK Athens FC ahead or level80.4%

12 — not level at half-time54.4%

X2 — level or Panathinaikos ahead65.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 805 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AEK Athens FC: at least 15Actual: 11
Panathinaikos: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

AEK Athens FC: at least 4Actual: 8
Panathinaikos: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Athens FC score1.66

Attack: AEK Athens FC score 57% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Panathinaikos concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.66 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Panathinaikos score0.81

Attack: Panathinaikos score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: AEK Athens FC concede 45% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.81 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–013.4%1–112.9%2–012.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.