Super League 1 · Greece · Conference League Group - 4

Volos NFC–Levadiakos

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio, Volos

Goals and red cards

40'LevadiakosFabricio Pedrozo (assist: Benjamin Verbič)
55'LevadiakosFabricio Pedrozo (assist: G. Balzi)
79'LevadiakosP. Vichos (assist: G. Balzi)
90+3'LevadiakosL. Jallow · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Volos NFC		Levadiakos
9	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	12
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	1
0	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
320	Passes	464
264	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Volos NFC 1.20 · Levadiakos 1.39. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Volos NFC 9 · Levadiakos 14; on target 2 and 5.
Levadiakos kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

M. Gioumatzidis→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.3%: “Levadiakos to win”. Second comes “Volos NFC to win” at 31.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Volos NFC, 1.39 for Levadiakos.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 806 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Volos NFC to win31.3%

Draw28.4%

Levadiakos to win40.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

Volos NFC lead at half-time20.7%

Level at half-time42.5%

Levadiakos lead at half-time36.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Volos NFC ahead or level63.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Levadiakos ahead79.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 805 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Volos NFC: at least 15Actual: 21
Levadiakos: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Volos NFC: at least 4Actual: 4
Levadiakos: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Volos NFC score1.20

Attack: Volos NFC score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Levadiakos's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Levadiakos score1.39

Attack: Levadiakos score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Volos NFC's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%0–19.5%1–29.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.