Super League 1 · Greece · Relegation Group - 6

Asteras Tripolis–Atromitos

4–2

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

10'Asteras TripolisK. Ketu (assist: E. Gonzalez)
34'Asteras TripolisJ. Bartolo (penalty)
39'Asteras TripolisN. Alho
47'Asteras TripolisC. Almyras (assist: I. Sylla)
83'AtromitosG. Tzovaras (assist: E. Ukaki)
86'AtromitosS. Zuber (assist: T. Tsingaras)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Asteras Tripolis		Atromitos
12	Shots	12
9	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
34%	Possession	66%
270	Passes	533
192	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Asteras Tripolis 0.98 · Atromitos 1.14. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots Asteras Tripolis 12 · Atromitos 12; on target 9 and 3.
Atromitos kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

F. Polychronis→

5.15

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.3%: “Atromitos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.98 for Asteras Tripolis, 1.14 for Atromitos.
The highest double chance value is 69.9% (X2 — draw or Atromitos win).
These values were computed from 804 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Asteras Tripolis to win30.1%

Draw31.6%

Atromitos to win38.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Asteras Tripolis lead at half-time16.7%

Level at half-time43.8%

Atromitos lead at half-time39.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Asteras Tripolis ahead or level60.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Atromitos ahead83.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 803 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Asteras Tripolis: at least 13Actual: 17
Atromitos: at least 15Actual: 14

Corners

Asteras Tripolis: at least 4Actual: 4
Atromitos: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Asteras Tripolis score0.98

Attack: Asteras Tripolis score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Atromitos's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Atromitos score1.14

Attack: Atromitos score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Asteras Tripolis concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%0–112.9%0–011.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.