Super League 1 · Greece · Relegation Group - 5

Larisa–Panserraikos

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

50'PanserraikosG. Doiranlis (assist: A. Ivan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Larisa		Panserraikos
11	Shots	4
2	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	2
6	Offsides	1
69%	Possession	31%
499	Passes	231
426	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Larisa 1.73 · Panserraikos 0.74. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Larisa 11 · Panserraikos 4; on target 2 and 3.
Larisa kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

C. Vergetis→

5.62

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.1%: “Larisa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for Larisa, 0.74 for Panserraikos.
The highest double chance value is 85.6% (1X — Larisa win or draw).
These values were computed from 804 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Larisa to win61.1%

Draw24.6%

Panserraikos to win14.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,325 of 2,113 predictions were correct (62.7%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	21

4	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Larisa win or draw85.6%

12 — any result other than a draw75.4%

X2 — draw or Panserraikos win38.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Larisa lead at half-time36.1%

Level at half-time43.9%

Panserraikos lead at half-time19.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Larisa ahead or level80.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Panserraikos ahead63.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 803 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Larisa: at least 13Actual: 13
Panserraikos: at least 13Actual: 21

Corners

Larisa: at least 5Actual: 4
Panserraikos: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Larisa score1.73

Attack: Larisa score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Panserraikos concede 47% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Panserraikos score0.74

Attack: Panserraikos score below the league average (40% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Larisa's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.0%2–013.0%1–112.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.