Super League 1 · Greece · Relegation Group - 5

Kifisia–Panetolikos

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kifisia		Panetolikos
21	Shots	4
9	Shots on target	1
14	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	9
3	Corners	1
2	Offsides	1
64%	Possession	36%
477	Passes	261
414	Accurate passes	191
18

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kifisia 1.58 · Panetolikos 0.87. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Kifisia 21 · Panetolikos 4; on target 9 and 1.
Kifisia kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

S. Tsimenteridis→

4.80

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.0%: “Kifisia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Kifisia, 0.87 for Panetolikos.
The highest double chance value is 80.8% (1X — Kifisia win or draw).
These values were computed from 804 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kifisia to win54.0%

Draw26.9%

Panetolikos to win19.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Kifisia lead at half-time40.1%

Level at half-time41.1%

Panetolikos lead at half-time18.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Kifisia ahead or level81.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Panetolikos ahead59.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 803 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kifisia: at least 14Actual: 18
Panetolikos: at least 13Actual: 20

Corners

Kifisia: at least 4Actual: 3
Panetolikos: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kifisia score1.58

Attack: Kifisia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Panetolikos's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Panetolikos score0.87

Attack: Panetolikos score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kifisia concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–013.0%2–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.