Super League 1 · Greece · Relegation Group - 4

Panserraikos–Atromitos

0–4

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Wednesday, 22 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Serres

Goals and red cards

6'AtromitosPeter Michorl (assist: J. Uronen)
31'AtromitosMakana Baku
36'AtromitosS. Pnevmonidis (assist: Makana Baku)
68'AtromitosMakana Baku

Match statistics

Match statistics
Panserraikos		Atromitos
8	Shots	14
1	Shots on target	7
6	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	7
4	Offsides	3
43%	Possession	57%
368	Passes	505
298	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Panserraikos 0.88 · Atromitos 1.37. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots Panserraikos 8 · Atromitos 14; on target 1 and 7.
Atromitos kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

A. Tsakalidis→

5.09

yellows per match

0.03

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.8%: “Atromitos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.88 for Panserraikos, 1.37 for Atromitos.
The highest double chance value is 77.2% (X2 — draw or Atromitos win).
These values were computed from 804 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Panserraikos to win22.8%

Draw29.4%

Atromitos to win47.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	8

5	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

Panserraikos lead at half-time13.2%

Level at half-time41.8%

Atromitos lead at half-time45.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Panserraikos ahead or level55.0%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or Atromitos ahead86.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 803 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Panserraikos: at least 13Actual: 14
Atromitos: at least 14Actual: 8

Corners

Panserraikos: at least 3Actual: 6
Atromitos: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Panserraikos score0.88

Attack: Panserraikos score below the league average (40% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Atromitos's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Atromitos score1.37

Attack: Atromitos score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Panserraikos concede 47% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–113.7%0–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.