Super League 1 · Greece · Championship Group - 2

AEK Athens FC–PAOK

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

36'AEK Athens FCTomasz Kędziora (own goal)
73'AEK Athens FCA. Koita (assist: Orbelín Pineda)
80'AEK Athens FCOrbelín Pineda

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEK Athens FC		PAOK
20	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	1
13	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
39%	Possession	61%
266	Passes	432
208	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Athens FC 1.31 · PAOK 1.00. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots AEK Athens FC 20 · PAOK 8; on target 6 and 1.
PAOK kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

J. Manzano→

4.69

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.0%: “AEK Athens FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for AEK Athens FC, 1.00 for PAOK.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (1X — AEK Athens FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 802 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Athens FC to win43.0%

Draw29.8%

PAOK to win27.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

25	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

AEK Athens FC lead at half-time29.3%

Level at half-time45.4%

PAOK lead at half-time25.3%

First-half double chance

1X — AEK Athens FC ahead or level74.7%

12 — not level at half-time54.6%

X2 — level or PAOK ahead70.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 801 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AEK Athens FC: at least 13Actual: 25
PAOK: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

AEK Athens FC: at least 4Actual: 6
PAOK: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Athens FC score1.31

Attack: AEK Athens FC score 56% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: PAOK concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.31 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals PAOK score1.00

Attack: PAOK score above the league average (49% more).

Opponent's defence: AEK Athens FC concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.00 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–012.2%0–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.