Super League 1 · Greece · Championship Group - 1

Olympiakos Piraeus–AEK Athens FC

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

5'AEK Athens FCA. Koita

Match statistics

Match statistics
Olympiakos Piraeus		AEK Athens FC
5	Shots	7
1	Shots on target	1
2	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	3
4	Offsides	4
63%	Possession	37%
491	Passes	307
367	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.44 · AEK Athens FC 0.80. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Olympiakos Piraeus 5 · AEK Athens FC 7; on target 1 and 1.
Olympiakos Piraeus kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

T. Stieler→

3.72

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.8%: “Olympiakos Piraeus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Olympiakos Piraeus, 0.80 for AEK Athens FC.
The highest double chance value is 80.4% (1X — Olympiakos Piraeus win or draw).
These values were computed from 801 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olympiakos Piraeus to win51.8%

Draw28.6%

AEK Athens FC to win19.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Olympiakos Piraeus win or draw80.4%

12 — any result other than a draw71.4%

X2 — draw or AEK Athens FC win48.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Olympiakos Piraeus lead at half-time31.3%

Level at half-time49.2%

AEK Athens FC lead at half-time19.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Olympiakos Piraeus ahead or level80.5%

12 — not level at half-time50.8%

X2 — level or AEK Athens FC ahead68.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 800 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 12Actual: 12
AEK Athens FC: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 4Actual: 5
AEK Athens FC: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olympiakos Piraeus score1.44

Attack: Olympiakos Piraeus score 61% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: AEK Athens FC concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.44 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals AEK Athens FC score0.80

Attack: AEK Athens FC score 56% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos Piraeus concede 58% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.80 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–014.7%1–114.1%2–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.