Super League 1 · Greece · Conference League Group - 1

Volos NFC–OFI

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio, Volos

Goals and red cards

69'Volos NFCL. Labrou (assist: L. Abanda)
75'OFIT. Fountas (assist: T. Nuss)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Volos NFC		OFI
9	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	6
6	Shots inside the box	6
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	5
3	Offsides	0
36%	Possession	64%
267	Passes	477
186	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Volos NFC 1.49 · OFI 1.11. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Volos NFC 9 · OFI 15; on target 4 and 6.
OFI kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

A. Tsakalidis→

5.09

yellows per match

0.03

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.3%: “Volos NFC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Volos NFC, 1.11 for OFI.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (1X — Volos NFC win or draw).
These values were computed from 800 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Volos NFC to win45.3%

Draw27.8%

OFI to win26.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Volos NFC lead at half-time18.9%

Level at half-time40.9%

OFI lead at half-time40.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Volos NFC ahead or level59.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or OFI ahead81.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 799 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Volos NFC: at least 14Actual: 18
OFI: at least 14Actual: 14

Corners

Volos NFC: at least 5Actual: 3
OFI: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Volos NFC score1.49

Attack: Volos NFC score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: OFI concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals OFI score1.11

Attack: OFI score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Volos NFC's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–010.3%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.