Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 26

AEK Athens FC–Kifisia

3–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

5'AEK Athens FCL. Jović (penalty)
16'AEK Athens FCA. Petkov (own goal)
26'AEK Athens FCB. Varga (assist: S. Pilios)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEK Athens FC		Kifisia
12	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
502	Passes	366
442	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Athens FC 2.57 · Kifisia 0.47. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots AEK Athens FC 12 · Kifisia 14; on target 5 and 4.
AEK Athens FC kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

V. Fotias→

4.75

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 83.7%: “AEK Athens FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 12.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.57 for AEK Athens FC, 0.47 for Kifisia.
The highest double chance value is 96.1% (1X — AEK Athens FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 793 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Athens FC to win83.7%

Draw12.4%

Kifisia to win3.9%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

AEK Athens FC lead at half-time46.0%

Level at half-time41.0%

Kifisia lead at half-time13.0%

First-half double chance

1X — AEK Athens FC ahead or level87.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or Kifisia ahead54.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 792 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AEK Athens FC: at least 14Actual: 15
Kifisia: at least 15Actual: 17

Corners

AEK Athens FC: at least 6Actual: 3
Kifisia: at least 2Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals59.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 49.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Athens FC score2.57

Attack: AEK Athens FC score 57% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Kifisia concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.57 goals.

How many goals Kifisia score0.47

Attack: Kifisia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AEK Athens FC concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–016.3%3–014.1%1–011.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.