Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 25

Panathinaikos–Panetolikos

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 16%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Panathinaikos		Panetolikos
17	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	6
2	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
479	Passes	382
412	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Panathinaikos 2.22 · Panetolikos 0.50. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Panathinaikos 17 · Panetolikos 11; on target 6 and 3.
Panathinaikos kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

S. Tsimenteridis→

4.96

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 77.8%: “Panathinaikos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.22 for Panathinaikos, 0.50 for Panetolikos.
The highest double chance value is 94.2% (1X — Panathinaikos win or draw).
These values were computed from 792 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Panathinaikos to win77.8%

Draw16.4%

Panetolikos to win5.8%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 244 of 561 predictions were correct (43.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Panathinaikos win or draw94.2%

12 — any result other than a draw83.6%

X2 — draw or Panetolikos win22.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (16.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Panathinaikos lead at half-time62.1%

Level at half-time32.6%

Panetolikos lead at half-time5.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Panathinaikos ahead or level94.7%

12 — not level at half-time67.4%

X2 — level or Panetolikos ahead37.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 791 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Panathinaikos: at least 13Actual: 10
Panetolikos: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Panathinaikos: at least 5Actual: 5
Panetolikos: at least 2Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Panathinaikos score2.22

Attack: Panathinaikos score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Panetolikos's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Panetolikos score0.50

Attack: Panetolikos score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Panathinaikos concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–017.0%1–014.1%3–012.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 792 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 102 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.