Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 24

AEK Athens FC–Larisa

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 March 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'AEK Athens FCH. Moukoudi

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEK Athens FC		Larisa
20	Shots	9
8	Shots on target	2
15	Shots inside the box	2
3	Goalkeeper saves	7
7	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
61%	Possession	39%
528	Passes	341
464	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Athens FC 2.46 · Larisa 0.45. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots AEK Athens FC 20 · Larisa 9; on target 8 and 2.
AEK Athens FC kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

F. Polychronis→

5.03

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 82.6%: “AEK Athens FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.46 for AEK Athens FC, 0.45 for Larisa.
The highest double chance value is 95.9% (1X — AEK Athens FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 780 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Athens FC to win82.6%

Draw13.3%

Larisa to win4.1%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 481 of 572 predictions were correct (84.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 68 of 181 predictions were correct (37.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AEK Athens FC win or draw95.9%

12 — any result other than a draw86.7%

X2 — draw or Larisa win17.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (13.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

AEK Athens FC lead at half-time55.3%

Level at half-time37.3%

Larisa lead at half-time7.3%

First-half double chance

1X — AEK Athens FC ahead or level92.7%

12 — not level at half-time62.7%

X2 — level or Larisa ahead44.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 779 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AEK Athens FC: at least 14Actual: 13
Larisa: at least 15Actual: 14

Corners

AEK Athens FC: at least 5Actual: 7
Larisa: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,136 predictions were correct (57.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Athens FC score2.46

Attack: AEK Athens FC score 57% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Larisa's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Larisa score0.45

Attack: Larisa score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AEK Athens FC concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–017.2%3–014.1%1–012.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 780 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 23 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.