Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 18

Kifisia–PAOK

1–4

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 4 March 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

32'PAOKA. Jeremejeff (penalty)
60'KifisiaK. Roukounakis
72'PAOKA. Jeremejeff (penalty)
88'PAOKA. Baba
90'PAOKG. Konstantelias (assist: A. Zivkovic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kifisia		PAOK
7	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
348	Passes	414
269	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kifisia 0.79 · PAOK 2.02. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Kifisia 7 · PAOK 9; on target 4 and 4.
PAOK kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

V. Fotias→

4.78

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.7%: “PAOK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.79 for Kifisia, 2.02 for PAOK.
The highest double chance value is 87.9% (X2 — draw or PAOK win).
These values were computed from 778 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kifisia to win12.1%

Draw21.1%

PAOK to win66.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	22

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Kifisia lead at half-time18.2%

Level at half-time39.8%

PAOK lead at half-time42.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Kifisia ahead or level58.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or PAOK ahead81.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 777 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kifisia: at least 14Actual: 18
PAOK: at least 12Actual: 22

Corners

Kifisia: at least 3Actual: 1
PAOK: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kifisia score0.79

Attack: Kifisia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PAOK concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PAOK score2.02

Attack: PAOK score 53% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Kifisia concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.02 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–212.7%0–111.5%1–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.