Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 23

PAOK–Asteras Tripolis

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'PAOKD. Chatsidis
89'PAOKA. Zivkovic (assist: A. Mythou)

Match statistics

Match statistics
PAOK		Asteras Tripolis
22	Shots	3
9	Shots on target	1
16	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
6	Corners	1
5	Offsides	2
64%	Possession	36%
516	Passes	292
447	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PAOK 2.44 · Asteras Tripolis 0.38. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots PAOK 22 · Asteras Tripolis 3; on target 9 and 1.
PAOK kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

A. Papapetrou→

4.02

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 84.0%: “PAOK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 12.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.44 for PAOK, 0.38 for Asteras Tripolis.
The highest double chance value is 96.6% (1X — PAOK win or draw).
These values were computed from 775 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PAOK to win84.0%

Draw12.6%

Asteras Tripolis to win3.4%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 481 of 572 predictions were correct (84.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	18

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 68 of 181 predictions were correct (37.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — PAOK win or draw96.6%

12 — any result other than a draw87.4%

X2 — draw or Asteras Tripolis win16.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (12.6%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

PAOK lead at half-time67.4%

Level at half-time29.3%

Asteras Tripolis lead at half-time3.3%

First-half double chance

1X — PAOK ahead or level96.7%

12 — not level at half-time70.7%

X2 — level or Asteras Tripolis ahead32.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 774 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PAOK: at least 12Actual: 11
Asteras Tripolis: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

PAOK: at least 5Actual: 6
Asteras Tripolis: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PAOK score2.44

Attack: PAOK score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Asteras Tripolis's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Asteras Tripolis score0.38

Attack: Asteras Tripolis score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: PAOK concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–018.5%3–015.1%1–013.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 775 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 100 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.