Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 23

OFI–Larisa

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'OFIT. Fountas (assist: K. Kostoulas)
7'OFIT. Fountas (assist: Levan Shengelia)
56'OFIE. Salcedo (assist: G. Kanellópoulos)

Match statistics

Match statistics
OFI		Larisa
9	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	3
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	7
1	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
443	Passes	403
367	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OFI 1.40 · Larisa 1.28. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots OFI 9 · Larisa 10; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

S. Zampalas→

5.60

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.9%: “OFI to win”. Second comes “Larisa to win” at 33.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for OFI, 1.28 for Larisa.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 770 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OFI to win38.9%

Draw27.9%

Larisa to win33.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	20

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,522 of 6,222 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — OFI win or draw66.8%

12 — any result other than a draw72.1%

X2 — draw or Larisa win61.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.9%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

OFI lead at half-time48.2%

Level at half-time37.7%

Larisa lead at half-time14.1%

First-half double chance

1X — OFI ahead or level85.9%

12 — not level at half-time62.3%

X2 — level or Larisa ahead51.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 769 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OFI: at least 13Actual: 13
Larisa: at least 16Actual: 20

Corners

OFI: at least 3Actual: 4
Larisa: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OFI score1.40

Attack: OFI score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Larisa's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Larisa score1.28

Attack: Larisa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: OFI concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%2–19.4%1–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 770 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 22 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.