Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 22

AEK Athens FC–Levadiakos

4–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'AEK Athens FCH. Moukoudi (assist: R. Marin)
49'AEK Athens FCL. Jović (assist: P. Mantalos)
59'AEK Athens FCP. Mantalos
68'AEK Athens FCR. Marin (assist: R. Ljubičić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEK Athens FC		Levadiakos
15	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
448	Passes	448
392	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Athens FC 2.12 · Levadiakos 0.73. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots AEK Athens FC 15 · Levadiakos 6; on target 5 and 1.

Referee

C. Vergetis→

5.70

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.1%: “AEK Athens FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.12 for AEK Athens FC, 0.73 for Levadiakos.
The highest double chance value is 89.7% (1X — AEK Athens FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 769 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Athens FC to win70.1%

Draw19.6%

Levadiakos to win10.3%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

AEK Athens FC lead at half-time41.2%

Level at half-time42.3%

Levadiakos lead at half-time16.6%

First-half double chance

1X — AEK Athens FC ahead or level83.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Levadiakos ahead58.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 768 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AEK Athens FC: at least 15Actual: 20
Levadiakos: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

AEK Athens FC: at least 5Actual: 3
Levadiakos: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Athens FC score2.12

Attack: AEK Athens FC score 56% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Levadiakos's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Levadiakos score0.73

Attack: Levadiakos score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: AEK Athens FC concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.4%1–011.5%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.