Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 22

Asteras Tripolis–Atromitos

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 3.6% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'AtromitosMansur (assist: D. Jubitana)
41'AtromitosD. Jubitana (assist: Peter Michorl)
79'Asteras TripolisJ. Bartolo (assist: N. Alho)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Asteras Tripolis		Atromitos
15	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	6
1	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
481	Passes	379
406	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Asteras Tripolis 1.05 · Atromitos 1.12. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Asteras Tripolis 15 · Atromitos 8; on target 4 and 3.
Asteras Tripolis kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

M. Matsoukas→

4.78

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.1%: “Atromitos to win”. Second comes “Asteras Tripolis to win” at 32.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.05 for Asteras Tripolis, 1.12 for Atromitos.
The highest double chance value is 68.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 763 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Asteras Tripolis to win32.5%

Draw31.4%

Atromitos to win36.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Asteras Tripolis lead at half-time24.8%

Level at half-time45.1%

Atromitos lead at half-time30.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Asteras Tripolis ahead or level69.9%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or Atromitos ahead75.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 762 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Asteras Tripolis: at least 12Actual: 20
Atromitos: at least 15Actual: 12

Corners

Asteras Tripolis: at least 4Actual: 6
Atromitos: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Asteras Tripolis score1.05

Attack: Asteras Tripolis score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Atromitos's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Atromitos score1.12

Attack: Atromitos score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Asteras Tripolis's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%0–112.0%1–011.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.